The capture of Aleppo by Syrian opposition fighters has reignited focus on the Syrian civil war, shaking frontlines that had been calm for years. This major development has implications for the entire region and beyond.
What Happened in Aleppo?
On November 26, opposition fighters launched a surprise attack from areas north and northwest of Aleppo. By November 29-30, they pushed government forces out of the city. This is the first time Aleppo’s control has changed since 2016, when Bashar al-Assad's forces, supported by Russia and Iran, regained control from opposition fighters.
The opposition has also advanced south of Aleppo, capturing parts of Hama province. In response, the Syrian government has vowed to retaliate, with Russia conducting airstrikes to support the military.
This escalation is the most serious in years, adding to the devastating toll of the war that began in 2011. Over hundreds of thousands have died, and more than half of Syria's 23 million population have been displaced, with millions fleeing as refugees.
Who Are the Opposition Fighters?
The attack on Aleppo was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as al-Nusra Front—al-Qaeda’s official Syrian branch until they severed ties in 2016. HTS, led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, is the dominant group in the Idlib region and has been designated a terrorist group by the United States, Russia, Turkey, and others.
A separate offensive was launched by the Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish-backed rebel alliance. The SNA also reportedly took control of Tel Rifaat from the Kurdish YPG militia, which Turkey considers a terrorist group.
Why Has the Conflict Escalated Now?
For years, Syria was divided into zones controlled by foreign powers:
- Russia and Iran back the Syrian government.
- The U.S. supports the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast.
- Turkey has troops in the northwest, supporting opposition fighters.
However, regional power struggles have shifted. The Iran-backed group Hezbollah, a key ally of al-Assad, has suffered losses during a recent war with Israel. Additionally, Russia and Iran have been distracted by other conflicts, including the Ukraine war.
Turkish officials have also expressed frustration with al-Assad’s failure to reach a peace deal with opposition forces. This tension has contributed to the opposition's recent offensives.
Is There a Peace Plan?
The United Nations passed a resolution in 2015 for peace in Syria. It called for a new constitution, elections, and fair governance. However, no progress has been made.
UN Syria envoy Geir Pedersen said the latest escalation highlights a failure to bring about peace and urged all parties to start serious negotiations to end the conflict.
What’s Next for Syria?
With Aleppo now under opposition control, the situation remains volatile. The government, backed by Russia and Iran, is preparing to fight back, while opposition groups continue to advance. The conflict, which has already caused immense suffering, shows no signs of ending soon.
